Taking Chances: Winning with Probability by John Haigh

Taking Chances: Winning with Probability John Haigh ebook
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 9780198526636
Format: pdf
Page: 400

That seems in the right ballpark to me. If it kills, you will be proud of what you did. Jul 4, 2009 - By contrast, if you are serving second and the score is 4-5, then you can't afford to be broken — if you are broken then you lose the set and do not get even a small chance to redeem yourself. Every day, people make judgements on these matters, yet many of us are ignorant of how probability works. This one wasn't even close: on fourth-and-seven with that little time remaining in the game, you would need either a 30% chance (expected points) or a 25% chance (win probability) to go for it. Dec 3, 2012 - Coaches from that side of the ball like offenses that protect the football, run the ball and don't take too many risks. Oct 22, 2012 - That is, there's a 95% chance that Obama will get within 47.5% and 53.5% of the 2-party vote. Nov 18, 2010 - What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? I was trying to convince Sharad to include the formula in the post but he thought it was too ugly (true) or to include a widget for calculating the win probability, which he thought was too infopornographic. Nov 26, 2012 - In order to win a battle, you have to fight it. Yet that's a terrible way to win football . Tony Dungy was much the same way. Then the probability Obama will win the popular vote is pnorm((50.55-50)/1.5) = 0.643. When you fight a battle, there are chances that you lose. Jun 1, 2012 - As explained by Moneyball author Michael Lewis, “one statistical rule of thumb in basketball is that a team leading by more points than there are minutes left near the end of the game has an 80% chance of winning.